Blog
How to Master Merchandise Planning by Using Data to Balance Risk and Strategy
April 10, 2025 / 6 minute read / By Nick Borowitz

Blog
In today’s competitive retail landscape, the difference between thriving and struggling businesses often comes down to one critical function: Open-to-Buy (OTB) merchandise planning.
More than just ordering products, merchandise planning is the backbone of retail success: a sophisticated orchestration of inventory levels, sales forecasting, risk assessment, and strategic positioning that directly impacts the customer experience and your bottom line.
Effective merchandise planning operates as a continuous cycle rather than a set-and-forget process. Every month-end inventory position becomes the launch point for the next month’s strategy, creating an ongoing flow of evaluation and adjustment.
The Planning Cycle in Action
This continuous cycle allows retailers to maintain the crucial balance between inventory investment and sales opportunity. When executed correctly, it prevents both the lost sales of understocking and the margin erosion of overstocking.
If you’re managing a lot of wholesale inventory and juggling different vendors, things can get complicated fast. This is where a good POS system with vendor integrations can be a game-changer. By using a POS system that allows you to import product catalogs directly from your suppliers, you can automate time-consuming tasks like updating stock levels, generating purchase orders, and even offering drop-shipping options. This means less manual work, fewer errors, and a more streamlined process from the moment you place an order to when your customer receives it.
The merchandise planning landscape has fundamentally shifted from when buyers relied primarily on intuition while planners focused narrowly on numbers. Today’s most successful retailers blend human expertise with robust analytics.
The New Planning Paradigm
Rather than planning at the SKU level, establishing inventory targets at the classification level provides structure and flexibility. This approach sets boundaries while allowing for in-season adjustments based on customer response.
Retailers can additionally leverage machine learning algorithms to analyze historical sales patterns alongside external factors like weather forecasts, economic indicators, and social media trends to improve forecast accuracy.
This advanced planning helps to save time in place of reviewing every product line by line by line. A robust modern system can quickly flag exceptions where performance deviates significantly from the plan, allowing merchandise planners to focus their attention where it matters most.
Owners can develop unified planning across physical stores, eCommerce, and marketplace channels that ensure inventory optimization across the entire business rather than a siloed approach, often leading to imbalances.
The retailers seeing the most significant success are those who have formalized their use of data within planning processes while leveraging the contextual understanding experienced merchants bring.
Perhaps no aspect of merchandise planning is more misunderstood than OTB. Besides merely a financial control mechanism, OTB is the strategic framework that connects sales projections, margin goals, and inventory investment.
Let’s examine elevating OTB from control to strategy with four simple steps:
When implemented as a strategic tool rather than just a budgetary control, OTB becomes the roadmap for achieving sales goals while maintaining inventory discipline. This helps retailers plan their inventory allocation: when, where, what, and how it may be needed most. We can view the breakdown as such:
Store Clustering: Moving beyond simple geographic or volume-based groupings, advanced retailers cluster stores based on customer demographics, purchase patterns, and product affinities, creating more nuanced allocation strategies.
Size Curve Optimization: Particularly for apparel and footwear, analyzing size-specific sell-through rates by location allows for customized size distributions that reduce both stock outs and overstocks.
Weather-Responsive Allocation: Climate-sensitive products can be distributed based on weather forecasts, ensuring seasonal merchandise arrives when customer demand begins rather than according to a rigid calendar.
Dynamic Rebalancing: Leading systems continuously identify opportunities to shift inventory between locations based on performance differentials rather than one-time allocations.
Adopting agile inventory practices, such as real-time sales monitoring, can help retailers pivot when trends shift. Integrating omni-channel data (e.g., online, in-store, mobile) further enhances forecasting accuracy and responsiveness.
So, what are the metrics that measure your planning effectiveness?
Gross Margin Return on Investment (GMROI) shows how much profit your inventory investment generates. The sell-through rate gives you early feedback by tracking the percentage of new merchandise sold within specific timeframes, helping you spot winners and problems.
Weeks of Supply functions like your inventory fuel gauge, forecasting how long current stock will last at projected sales rates. Markdown percentage reveals how well your pricing and timing strategies work by showing how much of your sales come from discounted items
Inventory turn measures overall efficiency by showing how many times you sell entirely and replace your inventory annually.
Retailers who consistently track these metrics can, on average, see 3-5% higher gross margins than those using less structured approaches. That is a significant advantage in today’s competitive landscape.
For retailers looking to enhance their merchandise planning capabilities, a phased approach typically yields the best results:
Assessment: Evaluate current processes, identifying gaps between existing capabilities and best practices.
Foundation Building: Establish consistent hierarchies, seasons, and planning calendars across the organization.
Process Refinement: Implement structured planning rhythms with clear roles, responsibilities, and decision points.
Tool Enhancement: Deploy appropriate systems that support the refined processes, whether through upgraded modules in existing merchandising systems or specialized planning tools.
Analytics Integration: Incorporate predictive analytics and exception-based management to enhance planning intelligence.
Continuous Improvement: Establish regular review cycles to measure effectiveness and refine outcomes-based approaches.
In an era where retail success margins continue to narrow, merchandise planning has emerged as a decisive competitive advantage. Retailers who master the balance of risk management, data-driven decisions, and strategic inventory positioning outperform peers in top-line growth and bottom-line profitability.
By formalizing product risk hierarchies, implementing dynamic inventory management processes, leveraging data while respecting merchant expertise, elevating OTB from control to strategy, and deploying sophisticated allocation methodologies, retailers create a comprehensive planning ecosystem that drives sustained business success.
The most encouraging aspect is that these capabilities are now accessible to retailers of all sizes through scalable systems and proven methodologies.
The question no longer is whether advanced planning is attainable but how quickly retailers will embrace these approaches to secure their competitive position.
![]() Explore four simple strategies to keep your first-time buyers coming back (with a little help from your… |
![]() How can retailers improve their email marketing metrics to achieve higher open rates, click through… |